安徽省农民增收的VAR模型分析

The VAR Model Analysis of How to Increase Peasants Income in Anhui Province

安徽省农民增收问题表现为绝对收入水平和增长率均低于全国平均水平,城乡差距、与周边省市的区域差距有进一步扩大的趋势、工资性收入所占比重逐年增加等。文章采用VAR模型分析得出:城镇居民收入是农民收入的格兰杰成因,农民工资性收入波动超过50%是由城镇居民收入波动造成的、农民经营性收入波动的贡献度达到30%。因此应通过改进国民收入分配、提高农民生产技能、构建城市反哺农村的新型城乡关系等方式,提高农民增收的能力。

The question of peasants＇ increasing income in Anhui Province is it lower than the national average level not only in absolute level but also in the growth rate. The disparity between city and countryside, or among peripheral provinces had the tendency of expanded. The wage income accounting for the proportion increases year by year. This article used VAR model analysis to conclude： the citizens＇ income is the Granger course of peasants＇ income, over 50% fluctuation of peasants＇ wage income receives from the fluctuation of citizens＇ , the peasants＇ managerial income contributes to 30% of its＇ fluctuation. So we should improve the national income assignment, enhance the peasants＇ productive skills, construct the new relations between city and countryside for city nurturing return to rural. Only through these ways, peasants can enhance its＇ increasing income ability.