摘要
本文分析了Logistic模型和Gompertz模型用于拟合旅游地生命周期曲线的内部数理逻辑,并通过收集中国部分省级行政区、重要旅游城市、著名旅游景区近30年的入境旅游人数统计资料,比较了上述两种数学模型对于拟合中国不同尺度旅游地演化过程的适用性,最后辩证地说明了旅游地生命周期假说的学术价值。
The paper makes an analysis of the Logistic and Gompertz Models in the internal mathematical logic of the Sshaped curve of Tourism Area Life Cycle （TALC）. With the statistics of inbound tourists in province-level administrative regions, some important tourist cities and famous tourist attractions in the past 30 years, this paper explores into the adaptability of the two models to fit with the various tourist areas. It concludes that TALC has a universal applicability to the evolution of Chinese tourism destinations in various geographical scales and it is found that the Logistic model performs better to large-scale destinations while Gompertz model suits small ones better.
出处
《旅游科学》
CSSCI
2009年第4期6-12,共7页
Tourism Science
基金
国家自然科学基金青年项目<旅游发展与乡村社会经济空间演化机制研究>(40701042)
