事业编制总量调控方法与模型

Method and Model for Regulating Quota on Utilities Staffing

为了对变革中的事业编制总量进行合理调控,基于偏好DEA与灰色Verhulst模型提出了总量测算与配置方法。从分析事业编制总量与经济社会发展的关系入手,运用偏好DEA模型确定近期各年中编制总量的有效范围,针对编制总量序列所呈现的"S"形波动特点,引入灰色Verhulst模型预测编制总量未来的可行范围,结合区域编制现状确定总量控制目标,在此基础上借助投影分析建立了区域内各地的编制配置模型。对江西省的实例分析结果表明该方法是有效可行的。

To regulate the quota of utilities staffing during the reform period, this paper proposes a method for quota forecast and staffing collocation based on DEA and grey Verhulst model. Starting with the relationship between the quota on utilities staffing and the development of economic and social, it determines valid bounds of staffing quota for different years by using data envelopment analysis model with preference information, and introduces grey Verhulst model to predict bounds of staffing quota for the fluctuating character of S shape presented by staffing quo- ta sequence, so that the objective for regulating is obtained combined with regional starting conditions. On basis of these, it establishes a staffing distribution model of utilities quota by means of projection analysis. The empirical analysis on Jiangxi Province shows that the proposed approach is feasible and effective.