偏离-份额模型的改进及对辽宁中部城市群产业结构演进的分析

The Extended Shif-share Analysis Model and the Application in the Industrial Structure Analysis of the Central Urban Agglomeration in Liaoning Province

回顾偏离-份额(Shift-share Analysis,SSA)模型的基本形式及其主要拓展模型,将动态化分析的思想引入模型,构建起DSSA模型(Dynamic shift-share analysis Model),选择辽宁中部城市群及其中的矿业城市抚顺和阜新为实证研究对象,分析其产业结构演进。研究结果表明,DSSA模型更加科学、合理,在区域分析中有重要的应用价值;辽中城市群产业结构持续改善,矿业城市抚顺和阜新的经济增长和结构变迁落后于城市群的变化;最后,给出矿业城市产业发展战略和产业转型的政策建议。

This paper reviews the basic form and the main extension of the shift - share analysis （SSA） model committed by foreign scholars. Then the dynamic analysis technology is introduced into the basic model, and it constructs the dynamic shift - share analysis （DSSA） model. In order to test the validity and reasonable compati- bility of the DSSA, it chooses the Central Urban Agglomeration in Liaoning province （CUAL） and its leaguer mining- dependent city, Fushun and Fuxin as sample. Then it analyzes the industrial structure evolution by DSSA. Results show that the DSSA model is valuable in the regional science and deserves to be put into practice in more areas. As for the CUAL, its industrial structure and economy growth structure have become better and better comparing to the comparison region, Liaoning province. Much evidence has proved that the CUAL would become the growth pole and core area in the economy growth in the Liaoning province. Thus, the mining - dependent city, such as Fushun city, Fuxin city and so on, might take advantage of the priority of industry and interaction among urban system to realize its urban economy transformation strategy.