基于梯形模糊数的长输管道故障树分析

Fault tree analysis of oil and gas pipe-lines with trapezoidal fuzzy number

针对长输管道底事件和中间事件发生概率情况获取不足的现状,将模糊集合论引入故障树分析法中,将事件发生概率描述为模糊数和模糊可能性,提出一种基于梯形模糊数算术运算的长输管道故障树分析方法,阐述将各种模糊数转换成梯形模糊数的途径.通过对长输管道进行模糊故障树分析,得到顶事件发生概率.用模糊重要度法对故障树基本事件进行排序.结果表明:为提高系统可靠性,应主要改善自然灾害及其他外力.

Aimed at present situation of insufficiency of data acquisition of fault probabilities of the bottom and intermediate events, the fuzzy set theory was introduced into fault tree analysis method, where the probabilities of the events were described as fuzzy numbers and fuzzy possibilities, a fault tree analysis method of oil and gas pipelines was proposed based on arithmetic operation of trapezoidal fuzzy numbers, and several methods to transform various kinds of fuzzy number into trapezoidal ones were discussed. The possibilities of the top event were obtained by analysing the fuzzy fault tree of oil and gas pipe. Using the method of fuzzy importance to arrange the basic events of the fault tree, the result showed that the factors such as natural disaster and other foreign forces should be avoided in order to improve the system＇s reliability.