我国晴空颠簸特点及各种预报结果分析

Features of Sky Bump in China and the Analysis to Various Forecasting Results

利用2005-2008年国内报告的34起颠簸个例，分析了我国颠簸的时空分布特点，以及不同程度颠簸的发生频率和不同层次颠簸发生的比率，结果表明，每年1、2月份的颠簸次数最多，12最少，其他月份较平均；华北地区出现颠簸的几率比其他地区都高，华东次之，华南最少；7500m以上高空飞行遭遇颠簸的可能性远远高于中空和低空；机组报告的颠簸逐年递增，尤其是严重颠簸。此外，对2008年10起晴空颠簸个例的预报结果比对发现，国际航空气象业务系统伦敦区域预报中心发布的SADIS颠簸产品对晴空颠簸的预报效果最好，错报率最低，DVSI指数预报效果次之，伦敦区域预报中心发布的重要天气预报图（WAFS）在三个颠簸预报产品的比较中效果较差。

Studying on the 34 bump cases reported from 2005-2008 in China, their spatial and temporal distribution features, and the frequency of bumps in different degree and the ratio of bumps in different level were analyzed. It is found that the bumps happened most frequently in January and February, lest in December, and average in other months of a year. Bumps in North China happens more frequently than any other areas, less frequently in East China and lest in South China. When flying in the upper air above 7500m, the bump will happen much more possibly than other levels; the numbers of bumps reported by aircrew increase year by year, especially the severe ones. It is also found the SADIS product of London Regional Prediction Center is the best for forecasting the bump, and DVSI index is better than WAFS.