需求要素对我国经济增长影响的边限协整分析

An Bounds Co integration Analysis of the Demand Factors for Economic Growth in China

为了更好地预测需求各构成要素对我国经济增长的影响程度,在建立了无约束误差修正模型的基础上,运用边限检验方法进行了实证研究。结果表明,中国经济增长与需求因素之间存在着长期的稳定关系,需求的不同组成部分对中国经济增长有不同的影响。在长期,只有资本形成总额的影响显著;在短期内,需求各要素对中国经济增长有显著影响。

In order to better forecast the impact of the various elements of demand on economic growth in China,we have used bounds testing to carry out empirical studies based on the unrestricted error-correction model,the results verify that there is a long-run equilibrium relationship between the demand for economic growth and its determinants,and the different components of economic demand have different impacts on the economic growth in China.In the long run,only gross capital formation has a positive effect on the economic growth,in the short run,each element of demand is found to be significant.