经济波动理论:哈耶克与凯恩斯的互补

Economic Fluctuation Theory:The Complementary of Keynes and Hayek

20世纪30年代的大萧条,导致哈耶克和凯恩斯对于经济波动成因的不同解说。很长一段时间,凯恩斯的有效需求不足论占据主流地位,哈耶克的结构失衡论则屈居冷宫。然而这次金融危机并不是在美国有效需求不足的背景下突发的,这就引起人们对凯恩斯有效需求不足论的质疑,哈耶克的结构失衡论似乎又席卷重来。因此,有必要在仔细介绍两种理论的基础上很好思考两者的关系。与传统的见解不同,本文认为他们两人的观点是可以互补的。只有把两者的理论综合起来,才有可能更加全面深入地了解经济波动的全过程。

The Great Recession in 1930＇s leaded to different viewpoints on the origin of economic fluctuation. For a long period time, Keynesian theory of insufficient effective demand occupied the mainstream position, while Hayek＇s theory of structural imbalance is not so prevailing. However, the recent financial crisis was not due to the lack of effective demand in United States which challenged the Keynesian theory and made Hayek＇s theory of structural imbalance came back again. Therefore, the relationship between these two theories should be considered thoroughly based on a careful introduction of them. Contrary to the traditional view, the author believes these two theories can be complementary. And only by putting the two theories together, will it be possible a more comprehensive insight into the entire process of economic fluctuations.