摘要
本文根据新古典经济增长理论构建了一个经济增长影响因素分析模型。然后采用Johansen协整检验、脉冲响应函数及方差分解对我国1978-2007年经济增长影响因素进行分析,结论认为作用弹性最大的是银行信贷,其次是土地投入,最后是劳动力,而外商直接投资的弹性则为负。文章同时采用状态空间模型分析了各因素弹性系数在1978-2007年的动态变化,结果表明银行信贷、劳动力投入弹性比较稳定,土地投入弹性有所波动并趋于减弱,外商直接投资的弹性系数波动较大。
Based on the theories of neoclassic economic growth, this paper constructs a model to analyze the influence factors of China＇s economic growth and employs Johansen test, Impulse Response Function, and Variance Decomposition to analyze the factors that contribute to China＇s economic growth from 1978 to 2007.The result shows that the most contributing elasticity is the loans, then the land, and then the labor force the land input, but the elasticity of FDI is negative. At the same time, the State Space Model is utilized to analyze the dynamic change of the elasticity during the period.
出处
《统计教育》
2009年第11期49-55,共7页
Statistical education
