城市二级医疗机构间患者流管理的仿真建模研究

Patient flow simulation modeling and analysis in urban healthcare delivery system

随着我国城市社区卫生服务网络的建设已初具规模,如何促使患者更多地选择社区卫生服务机构就诊成为至关重要的问题。通过仿真软件Arena建立城市二级医疗机构间患者就诊的流动模型,结合北京市海淀区综合医院和社区卫生服务机构的就诊数据,分析在给予社区转诊到综合医院病人就诊优先权的情况下,患者就医的等待时间、城市二级医疗机构间各类医疗机构利用率的变化。同时,以最大化治疗病人数为目标,结合考虑各类医疗机构利用率平衡的情况下,计算出社区卫生服务机构分流患者的最优比例,以期为政府进行患者流控制与管理提供参考。仿真结果从患者角度证明了转诊优先的激励政策能缩短其就诊的等待时间,从系统的角度验证了社区首诊制能给城市医疗系统带来的效率提升。

With the developed of community health service, how to drive more patients choose community healthcare facilities for treatment becomes an important issue.A simulation model of patient flow is developed by Arena sofeware.With the data from Haidian district in Beijing, the patients＇ waiting time and system utilization rate are improved under the referral priority incentive. The optimal patient flow distribution rate is calculated by the simulation model which is aimed to acchive the maximum patients＇ throughput in the systems and balance the utilization in each kind health care facilities.