城镇低收入人群社会保障的需求与供给差异研究

Differences in the demand and supply of social security to urban population with lower income

在现行城镇低收入人群社会保障制度供给项目和供给数量既定的条件下,分别运用ELES模型和微分方程模型测算了1997—2007年陕西省城镇低收入人群的社会保障需求和社会保障供给数量,预测了2008—2020年需求和供给的数量;通过城镇低收入人群社会保障需求项目、需求数量与现行城镇低收入人群社会保障制度能够提供的供给项目和供给数量比较,得出城镇低收入人群社会保障的需求与供给差异。

Through analyzi demand of social security, ng the concept of demand and supply for urban population with lower income, the lowest demand and supply amount of social security for urban population with lower income between 1997 and 2007 in Shaanxi province were calculated by using ELES model and differential equation; demand and supply amount between 2008 and 2020 in Shaanxi province were calculated by using GM （ 1,1 ） ; and then, supply of urban population with lower income between 1997 and 2020 in Shaanxi has been predicted. By comparison between demand elements of social security and quantity demand of social security for urban low - income people and supply elements and amount from existing social security system, the differences about them can be drawn. The study found that social security projects for urban population with lower income have differences in some developmental projects such as education, transportation, telecommunications and expenses of upbringing and support; the number of urban population with lower income in social security had kept their balance before 2001 ; after 2001, it will show supply falls short of demand, and the difference value will increase from 433 million Yuan in 2001 to 25.02 billion Yuan in 2020 with increasing at the rate of 22.49% a year.