城际铁路建设准入及时序决策模型研究

Researches on the Admission and Sequential Decision-making Model for Intercity Railroad Construction

研究目的:研究建设城际铁路系统的相关影响因素,并建立科学的时序决策模型,使该系统与社会经济发展相协调,且具有前瞻性。研究结论:分析了城际铁路建设准入影响因素,提出了包括运输需求、运输供给、建设资金、融资政策与措施、国家政策导向等的因素集;建立了城际铁路建设时序决策模型,并对4个准入的城际铁路系统进行了时序决策分析,表明了此决策模型方法的科学性和操作的可行性。它克服了使用单一方法的片面,增强了对指导城际铁路系统规划的可信度。

Research purposes ： The research was done on the influencing factors on intercity railway construction and the scientific sequential decision - making model was established for the purposes of making the railway system coordinated with the social and economic developments and making the railway system has perspective. Research conclusions：The analyses of influencing factors on admission of intercity railway construction were made, including the traffic demand, traffic supply, construction fund, financing policy and measure and national guidance policy. The scientific sequential decision - making model was established and with it the analyses of sequential decision - making were made for four admissible railway systems. The results showed this model was scientific in method and feasible in operation, and application of this model could overcome the one - sideness of using single method and improve the believability of planning of intercity railway system.