奶牛产后恢复生殖机能Markov过程分析

MARKOV PROCESS ANALYSIS OF RECUPERATING REPRODUCTIVE FUNCTIONS OF POSTPARTUM COWS

作者对随机分组实施奶牛产后早期生殖机能障碍综合防制措施的实验组１５２头母牛和同群常规饲养的对照组１５１头母牛，选定产后４５，６０，８５，１００，１２０ｄ等５个时点，依不孕母牛（Ｓ１），暂时未恢复正常性周期母牛（Ｓ２），恢复正常性周期暂未配孕母牛（Ｓ３），已配孕母牛（Ｓ４）作恢复生殖机能状态演变过程分析。本文采用有吸收点的Ｍａｒｋｏｖ模型，通过４种状态在不同时点演变过程的转移概率矩阵计算，得出各间隔时点Ｓｉ状态的转移条件概率。实验组和对照组全过程状态迁移向量分布的成数资料统计学检验表明，由Ｓ２到Ｓ３，由Ｓ３到Ｓ４及Ｓ２、Ｓ３滞留的转移概率组间差异极显著（Ｐ＜０．０１），说明实验组是通过促进Ｓ２→Ｓ３，Ｓ３→Ｓ４的状态迁移，减少Ｓ２、Ｓ３自身滞留来提高奶牛产后繁殖成绩的。其调控作用的发挥主要在产后８５ｄ以前。

A total of 152 cows random selected from 303 cows were put into practice the integrated prophylaxis of early postpartum reproductive functional imbalance and the rest were control group The evolution analysed by an absorber type Markov model,under four conditions:sterile (S 1),unrecovery (S 2),recovery and unpregnancy (S 3) and in calf (S 4) Interval time point were on 45th,60th,85th,100th,120th day postpartum The evolution of four functional states could be calculated by the conditional probability of each transition matrix at interval time point The result showed that,the interclass variance of transfer probability were significant difference (P<0 01) under the evolution states from S 2 to S 3,and from S 3 to S 4,and the arrested states S 2、S 3 That means forcing the states transfer from S 2 to S 3 and S 3 to S 4,and reducing the self arrested of S 2、S 3,the cows postpartum reproductive efficiency can be increased The regulation acted in 85 days postpartum