安康小麦条锈病流行特点分析和季节流行动态曲线拟合

The Epidemicity Analysis of Wheat Stripe Rust in Ankang City and Fitting of Temporal Dynamic Curve of Epidemic

根据安康市农业技术推广中心小麦条锈病监测结果,分析安康市2001～2008年以来条锈病的发生特点和危害,并采用数理统计法检验条锈病流行动态模型。结果显示,安康市近8年来条锈病累计发病田块面积1.79×105 hm2,累计产量损失8.54×107 kg。品种单一化种植及病菌新小种的出现是近年来条锈病流行的主要因素。4月下旬的病叶率与产量形成有显著的相关性。通过拟合度的回归检测,得出冈珀茨模型拟合效果最好,从而为条锈病流行动态的定量研究提供借鉴。

Occurrence characteristics and damages of wheat stripe rust were analyzed based on disease monitoring by Ankang Agriculture Technical Extension Centre during 2001～2008.The temporal dynamic model of wheat stripe rust was built by means of mathematical statistics.The result shown that diseased wheat land accumulatively was 1.79×10^5 hm^2 in recent eight years,which caused yield loss of 8.54×10^7 kg.Mono-planting of a few cultivars and new races were responsible for epidemic of wheat stripe rust in recent years.Infected leaves probability in the last ten-day of the April was significantly correlated with yield.Gompertz model shown the best fitting effect through linear regression testing,which provided the reference for researching the temporal dynamic epidemic of wheat stripe rust.