我国碳排放与出口贸易的相关关系研究

A Survey on Interrelationship between Carbon Emission and Exports in China

文章基于协整理论和误差修正模型对我国1988～2007年碳排放量和商品出口之间的关系进行研究。研究发现,我国碳排放与对外出口贸易之间具有长期均衡关系,并且两者之间存在双向因果关系,出口的短期变动也同样对碳排放量存在正向影响。此结果反映出商品出口是加剧我国近年来碳排放量的一个重要因素。

This paper attempts to analyze the empirical relationship between carbon emission and the exports in China. Yearly data through 1988-2007 are analyzed with VECM model. The empirical evidence suggests that from 1988 to 2007, cointegration and bi-directional causalities exist between carbon emission and exports. The short-run fluctuation of export makes a positive effect on carbon emission too. These results indicate that goods exports must be an important factor accelerating China carbon emission in recent years.