影响水库可持续发展指标的灵敏度分析

Sensitivity Analysis of Indices Affecting Reservoirs' Sustainable Development

随着水资源的日趋紧张,评价水库现状,研究探讨水库的可持续发展问题,己成为人们关注的热点.在以往的研究中,虽己有一些文献进行过研讨,但在众多的评价指标中,哪些指标为主要指标,哪些为次要指标,在水库的运行过程中应注意哪些关键指标等等,是人们更为关注的问题.以江苏省某水库为例,对其运行、管理及周围生态环境和社会经济发展状况进行调查,并对调查资料进行分析、归纳、总结;在已有多层多项指标体系基础上,应用层次分析法研究各基层指标对综合指标的影响程度,找出了以结构安全评价指标等为主的8个关键指标,为该水库的长效运营提供了可靠的科学依据.

With the water resources declining gradually, there is a focus of concern about evaluating the present situation of reservoirs and discussing the water conservancy sustainable development. In previous studies, although the indices affecting reservoirs＇ sustainable development had been discussed in some documents, there are still some issues like which evaluation indices are primary or secondary and which are key in a large number of indices should be paid more attention. In this article, a reservoir in Jiangsu Province is taken for instance, analysis is made on circulation, management, surrounding ecosystem environment and social economy development condition. According to the analysis and summary of inquisition data, based on existing multi-hierarchy and indices system, the authors analyse the various primary indices＇ influence on composite indices by using analytic hierarchy process（AHP）. Eight key indices such as evaluation indices for the structural safety are acquired, so as to provide a reliable scientific basis for a long-time and efficient operation of the reservoir.