湖泊水文年相似的评价指标及判断方法

The Evaluation Index and Method for Judgment the Hydrological Similarity Year of the Lake

在湖泊水文预报精度不高时,应用模糊识别理论判断湖泊水文特性和过去时段的相似程度,可以利用以往调度经验指导当前湖泊调度管理。选择各时段湖泊径流、湖泊水位、湖泊用户的用水量和历史时段欧几里得距离作为判别指标,提出了湖泊水文相似的评价相似标准,建立了应用模糊识别理论进行湖泊水文年相似判断的基本方法,该方法把历史年份数据作为已知模式,计算待识别年份各时段3个指标和历史时段欧几里得距离,将评价转换为相识级别判断。通过实例说明了该方法具有良好的应用前景。

Fuzzy recognition can be used to judge the hydrological year similarity for the lake when the hydrological forecasting precision of the lake is low, the historical regulation experience of the lake can be used to as current dispatching scheme if the hydrological similarity year can be found, euclidean distance of lake runoff,lake level and water consumption betewen recognition dates and the historical is selected as evaluation index,Similar standard and the method of fuzzy recognition for hydrological year similarity judgment is also built. By calculation the euclidean distance of the three index, the problem is changed to judge similarity degree case study show that the methed has broad application prospect.