银川城市电力负荷特点分析与中长期预测

Characteristic Analysis and Mid-term & Long-term Forecast of Yinchuan Urban Power Load

近年来银川市国民经济呈高速发展态势,用电负荷结构已发生了很大变化。根据银川市历年负荷资料,分析了银川城市电力负荷各方面的特点,找出影响银川电网电力负荷变动的因素,并对银川市2009～2015年以及2020年电力负荷与用电量进行了预测,分析与预测有利于掌握城市用电负荷的发展趋势,对城市电网规划和开拓电力市场提供决策依据具有指导意义。

With the economy fast developing, the power load structure of Yinchuan has changed greatly recent years. Based on the load data of past several years, the paper analyzes the power load characteristic in various aspects, looks for the factors influencing power load change, and forecasts power load and power consumption of the year 2009 to 2015 as well as the year 2020, which helps to know future load development, and is significant for urban power network planning and power market exploitation providing decision-making basis.