中全新世暖期与未来气候变暖情景下东亚夏季降水变化相似型分析

An Analogy Analysis of Summer Precipitation Change Patterns Between Mid-Holocene and Future Climatic Warming Scenarios over East Asia

利用中全新世暖期和21世纪末期的多模式气候模拟资料,对这两个时期东亚地区夏季降水变化相似型进行分析。结果表明,东亚地区中全新世与21世纪末气候变暖情景下的夏季降水变化分布型存在一定的相似性,尤其反映在两个关键区上:青藏高原南部降水变化均出现增多,增幅达到1.5 mm/d以上;新疆西南部降水变化均出现减少,减少幅度达到0.1 mm/d以上,且中全新世降水模拟变化结果与地质气候记录定性吻合。因此东亚地区全新世暖期夏季降水变化在一定程度上可作为未来夏季降水变化的历史相似型。

Combining Climate modeling results with geological climate records of mid-Holocene, we analyze the analog of summer precipitation change patterns between mid-Holocene and the late 21st century climate change scenarios over East Asia. The results show that the pattern of East Asian summer precipitation change in mid- Holocene is similar to that in the late 21st century to a certain degree. We find two key areas： one in the southern edge of the Tibetan Plateau, the other in the southwest of Xinjiang, with increased precipitation by more than 1.5mm/day and decreased precipitation up to 0.1 mm/day under both warming conditions, respectively. Mean- while, the simulated mid-Holocene precipitation is qualitatively consistent with relevant geological climate records. Therefore the pattern of East Asian summer precipitation change in mid-Holocene can be taken as a historical analog pattern for the future in the study area in some degree.