气候变化对石羊河流域农业生产的影响

Influence of Climate Warming to Agricultural Production in Hexi Corridor——A Case Study in Shiyang River Basin

用石羊河流域气象站47 a气象观测资料和武威农试站37 a农作物生育资料,探讨流域气候变化背景下农业气象、水文变化特征及对作物布局、生育和产量形成的影响。结果表明:流域内≥10℃积温呈逐年代增加趋势,热量条件好转;气候干旱指数呈逐年代增大趋势,暖干化明显;来水量呈逐年代减少趋势,水问题日趋严重;受气候变暖的影响,易受旱害的高耗水作物春小麦种植面积减小,耐旱、喜温的经济作物玉米、棉花种植面积扩大;春小麦生育进程加快,生育期缩短,对产量形成不利,反之,对喜温作物玉米、棉花等提高产量和品质有利。

Based on the 47-year meteorological observation data of the Shiyang River basin in 3 meteorological stations and 37-year crop growth data of agriculture station of Wuwei, the change of agricultural meteorology, hydrological characteristics as well as their effects of crop growth and yield were discussed. By climate warming effecting, ≥10℃ accumulated temperature assumed increase tread stages of years, which linearity tendency rate were 99.0,105.7,115.8℃ · 10a-1 of upper ,middle ,down stream. The climate drought index assumed accretion tread stages of years of the rive basin. The upper stream warming and drying was the most obvious. The volume of inflow assumed decrease tread stages of years of the rive basin, which linearity tendency rate were 0.50. 5 a hundred million m3 · 10a-1. The contradiction of agricultural using water was even more protruded. The warming crop area was increasing. The cooling crop area was decreasing. The grow process of crop was accelerated. The occurrence time was ahead. The interval days of Planting-Three leaves,Jointing-Heading were shorten 4d ,7d to 80s. The days of Flowering-Ripening weren＇ t obvious change. The temperature was main factor effected crop yield. The negative effect stages of wheat yield were Seeding stage and Milking stage. The positive effect stage was Jointing-Heading. The whole growth of corn and cotton yield was mainly positive effect. The promote effect of growth later was even more obvious. It was safe to disease path eggs live through the winter, which base was increasing. The disease reproducing and growth time were ahead,. Its occurrence generation number was increasing and harm time was longer. The harm assumed aggravated tread stages of years.