土地供应政策对住房供给与住房价格的影响研究

The impact of land supply policy on housing supply and prices

土地供应是住房供应的基础和前提。由于土地供应的方式、数量、结构和价格直接影响着住房供应的数量、结构、价格和预期，因此我国政府将土地供应政策视为干预住房市场的重要工具。从理论层面分析土地供应政策对住房市场影响的“生产函数渠道”、“预期渠道”和“供应效率渠道”。结合近年我国土地供应政策的变化，利用1998～2006年35个大中城市的相关平行数据和截面数据，重点检验“生产函数渠道”和“供应效率渠道”的有效性，以及实施经营性土地使用权招标拍卖挂牌出让政策对我国住房市场的影响。通过分析土地供应政策对住房供给和住房价格的干预效果，就改进土地供应政策效果提出相关政策建议。

Abstract： Land supply is the basis of housing supply. Since the approach of land granting, the quantity, structure as well as price of land supply directly affect the quantity, structure, price and expectation of housing supply, the Chinese government regards land supply policy as one of the most important instruments for intervention of urban housing market.Three transmission mechanisms are proposed, through which land supply policy could influence the housing market, namely, the production function mechanism, the expectation mechanism, and the housing supply efficiency mechanism.Based on the recent change of land supply policies and the data for 35 large and medium-sized cities from year 1998 to year 2006, panel data analysis and cross-section regression are employed to examine the existence of the production function mechanism, the housing supply efficiency mechanism and the impact of land supply regime shift （land has to be supplied through biddings,auctions and listings rather than private negotiations） on housing supply and housing prices. By analyzing the effectiveness of land supply policy in modulating the housing market, suggestions are provided for improving the efficiency of land supply policy.