区域生态安全模糊循环迭代评价模型及应用

Fuzzy model for evaluating regional eco-environmental security

利用模糊模式识别的概念,引入模糊二元对比法权重作为主观权重对客观权重进行修正,提出了区域生态安全模糊循环迭代评价模型,同时得到方案优属度和目标权重。以辽宁省海岸城市14个地区为例,按照压力-状态-响应(P-S-R)框架确立指标体系,采用2007年实地调查数据,应用模型获取指标模糊循环迭代权重和方案优属度。结果表明,瓦房店市、庄河市、普兰店市和大连地区等生态安全压力较大,而长海县和营口市生态压力较小;大连市区、大洼县、庄河市和兴城市生态安全状态相对隶属度较高,葫芦岛市和绥中县生态安全状态相对隶属度较低;凌海市、普兰店市和绥中县生态安全响应相对隶属度较大,瓦房店市、盘山县和葫芦岛市生态安全响应相对隶属度较小。从整个生态安全程度来看,大连市除长海县外,生态安全程度较高,尤其庄河市生态安全程度最高;葫芦岛市区、长海县生态安全程度较低,评价结果与实地考察情况基本相符。

The given paper is aimed to introduce a fuzzy model for evaluating regional eco-environmental security proposed by its authors. Seeing the complicated nature of the assessment criteria and the weights caused by the multi-objective decision-making of regional ecological security, the paper has proposed a fuzzy pattern recognition model as a result of its comprehensive study of the problems involved. While paying attention to the subjective and objective factors in decision-making and taking into consideration the indicator weight not wholly dependent on the project sets, we have introduced such conceptions as fuzzy duality contrast weight, the amendment for subjective weight to impersonal weight, the objective weight and the relative membership degree of alternatives in this paper. Since the present model has taken into account among other things the objective intentions of the decision-maker and the natural property of the alternative, it is possible to make the ranking of the alternative more feasible and reasonable than those in the former methods. While trying to test the egicacy of the model, the paper has taken 14 coastal cities of Liaoning as our case study so as to establish an index system on the basis of the pressure-state-response （PSR） framework. Furthermore, a fuzzy circular iteration model has been used to calculate the indicators＇ iterative fuzzy weight and relative membership degree by means of the field survey data of 2007. The results of the initial application of the model show that in keeping the ecologieal safety, the urban area of Dalian and its surrounding counties, Dawa County, Zhuanghe City and Xingcheng City stand higher whereas Huludao City and Suizhong County--lower. While Wafangdian City, Zhuanghe City, Pulandian City and Dalian City experience upper eco-environmcntal safety pressure, Changhai County and Yingkou County experience inferior ecological safety pressure, with Linghai City, Pulandian City and Suizhong County enjoying upper ecological safety response ability, with Wafandian City, Panshan County and Huludao City--inferior. However, on the whole, Dahan City in addition to Changhai County, enjoy higher relative membership degree of ecological safety, with Zhuanghe city in particular, keeping the highest level of ecological safety. Thus, it can be said that the assessment results are in conformity with the practical survey results, which helps to prove the applicability of the model.