广东经济增长协整分析

Analysis of Guangdong eoconomy growth coordination

本文通过对广东省1978～2007年的GDP、全社会固定资产投资和税收三个时间序列进行数量分析,发现它们之间存在协整关系,基于这个协整关系建立误差修正模型(ECM),在对模型进行分析后,对广东的经济发展提出一些建议。

This paper analyzes the datum of GDP、Capital asserts investment and Tax form 1978 to 2007 with time series method and finds that there is a co-integration relationship among these factors. It builds a ECM model basing on that relationship and put forward some advices for Guangdong economy after analyzing the model.