金融抑制下缅甸金融发展困境与自由化展望

Financial Repression,Development Dilemma,and Liberalization Prospects in Myanmar

缅甸金融部门实行利率和汇率管制,真实利率为负,市场汇率与官方固定汇率差异巨大,表现出显著的金融抑制特征。20世纪90年代,缅甸政府进行了以建立私营银行体系为重心的金融改革,并取得一定成效,但改革远远没有改变金融抑制的根本,私营银行由于资本规模较小且没有国家信用支持,不具备必要的抗风险能力。金融部门脆弱性加剧,集中表现为2003年金融危机及其后数年金融部门发展停滞甚至倒退。金融抑制下的缅甸金融部门已成为国民经济发展的瓶颈,其自由化改革具有迫切性。本文在对缅甸金融抑制、金融改革及金融困境进行全面剖析的基础上,对缅甸金融自由化前景进行了展望。

Myanmar implements control of interest rate and foreign exchange rate. The real interest rate is negative, and the gap between market foreign exchange rate and official foreign exchange rate is significantly large, so that the feature of financial repression is distinct in Myanmar. In 1990s, the government of Myanmar conducted financial reform to establish private bank system. The reform took effect, but it did not change the fundament of financial repression. Because of small capital scale and lack of support from the state, private banks have no necessary capacity to resist risk. The vulnerability of the financial sector intensifies, which is manifested by the 2003 financial crisis and the stagnation or even retrogression of financial sector afterwards. The financial sector under financial repression has become bottleneck of economic development, and the liberalization reform of financial sector is imperative and impendent. Based on comprehensive analysis on financial repression, dilemma, and reform in Myanmar, the paper describes its prospects of financial liberalization.