城市用地对经济增长贡献的分析

To Analyse on the Economy Growing Contribution in the Urban Used Land

随着经济的高速发展,城市用地扩张在城市经济中所起的作用越来越明显。目前城市建设用地的投放被称为"地根",和货币金融政策"银根"并驾其驱作为宏观调控的两大主要手段。中央政府和地方政府由于存在着利益分配的问题,因而掌握土地实权的地方行政将土地投放作为发展经济的重要驱动。但是土地投入对经济的贡献到底有多大,应该用什么样政策来管理土地投入使用,通过利用改进后的索洛模型来分析,得出的统计结果和模型假设相矛盾。出现这种不合的原因归结为两点,一是中国统计数据质量不高,二是模型适用经济体大小范围。但是能从统计结果大致看出三种要素在经济增长中地位的高低,资本最为重要,其次为劳动力,最后是土地投入。土地投入的作用很小。只要土地投入达到必需量后,土地的进一步投入带来的经济增长很小。最后,进一步提出相关的政策建议,中国应该走"聪明增长"的道路,而不是盲目地扩大城市用地范围。

In the rapid developmy of economy,the importance of the expansion of urban areas becomes more obvious. Recently,urban land has been used to control the micro economy,the same as monetary policy. Because of the existence of interest＇s distribution,local governments are prone to expand the urban areas to increase the revenue. Sometimes, the new areas can＇t be put into practice. It is necessary to know how the urban land effects the economy. The fact will decide Land policy ,for example the land use policy. In the essay,the Solow model has been used to estimate the ratio of devotion to GDP,using the statistical data of 1987 to 2002. The results of the regression analysis contradict the assumptions of the Solow model. There are two reasons to explain the contradiction. One is the applicability of the Solow model, the other is the quality of the statistical data. However, the general result can be seen from the analysis. The most important element is the capital. The amount of urban land is the last one. Once the land quantity reach the essential amount,the importance of the land begins decrease. At the end,the essay brings forward the appropriate land policy. China should adopt the ＂smart increase＂ method; refuse the blind expansion of urban areas.