河南省农地利用效益协调度空间分异及预警研究

Spatial Diversity and Forecasting of Farmland use Benefit Harmony Degree in He'nan Province

基于灰色系统理论建立了农地利用效益协调诊断模型、协调度测算模型和协调度变化预警模型。以河南省为研究区域,测算了各地市2002~2007年农地利用社会经济效益和生态环境效益变化趋势指数和协调度,并以2007年为起始年对协调度未来变化进行了预警。结果表明,各地市农地利用社会经济效益都呈增长趋势,但生态环境效益指数总体上没有明显增长;社会经济效益和生态环境效益都有增加且增长幅度差别不大的地市协调度较高,增长幅度差别较大的适中,两者呈反方向变化的协调度较低;预计未来协调度警情除少数地市处于重警层次外,其余处于轻警层次。图3,表1,参12。

Base on theory of grey system, the paper sets up harmony diagnoses, harmony degree measure and forecasting models. The models are successfully applied in the study of farmland use benefit changing trend, harmony degree distribution and forecasting in He＇ nan province, the re- suits indicate, as a whole, the s^io-economic benefits show an increase trend and the eco-environment benefits show no evident increase trend. The regions where the two benefits increase extend has less difference shows higher harmony degree, where has biggish difference shows moderate harmony degree and where has opposite direction increase shows lower harmony degree. The forecasting results of harmony degree mostly are worse except regions where the harmony degree is worst in the future.