大地微电流异常用于地震预报的可能性

The probability for the application of the earth micro-current anomaly in earthquake prediction

地震预报中最难的是临震预报,而且最需要的也是临震预报。因此,寻找一种临震指标是非常重要的。大地微电流异常可能是一种能在地震前出现异常的观测方法,它具有地震前突变异常,而且是异常幅度明显的指标。通过大地微电流在云南,新疆,黑龙江和中国地震局地质研究所7个台站的实际观测结果可见,一般在地震前几天到20天左右出现异常,异常持续时间约2天。我们根据其异常规律,预测过5个地震的发生,特别是2007年6月3日云南省普洱6.4级和2008年7月7日黑龙江龙江县4.6级地震。

Imminent earthquake forecast is the hardest thing in earthquake prediction, and it is also in great need. Therefore, looking for one imminent index is the most important. The earth micro-current method may be one of observation methods that can find break anomaly with remarkable amplitude before earthquake. It can be found in the data recorded at seven stations in Yunnan, Xinjiang, Heilongjiang and the institute of geology, China Earthquake Administration that the anomalies usually appear before earthquakes by several to twenty days and the durations of anomalies are about two days. Based on the law of the anomalies, we have forecasted five earthquakes successfully, including the Puer M 6. 4 earthquake in Yunnan Province on June 3, 2007 and the Longjiang M 4.6 earthquake in Heilongjiang Province on July 7, 2008.