基于种群竞争模型的中外资银行竞争均衡分析及实证检验

Analysis of Competition between Chinese Bank and Foreign Bank Based on Lotka-Volterra Model and an Empirical Study

文章首次将组织生态学理论应用于银行市场竞争分析中,在分析了银行种群生态学特征的基础上,构建了中外资银行两银行种群及多银行种群的Lotka-Volterra竞争模型,研究技术示范效应及竞争效应对中外资银行竞争均衡状态的影响,最后利用非平衡面板数据对理论结果进行了实证检验,并给出政策建议。结果显示:适当控制中外资银行种群间的示范效应及竞争效应,鼓励各银行种群间的差异化经营,提高银行种群获取客户资源的能力,有利于形成多元化的银行市场结构。

It is the first time the authors introduce the organizational ecology into banks competition analysis. It indicates that using the theory of ecology population to study on bank population competition is feasible by an analysis between biology population and bank population. Then this paper proposes a Lotka - Volterra competition model between Chinese bank and foreign bank. This model could discuss and analyze the influence of the technological spillover effects and competition effects to the competition equilibrium. Finally, it uses a non - balance panel data to those theory results and gives policy recommendations. By discussing the stabilization condition of operation scale of Chinese bank population and foreign bank population, it shows that it is necessary to control the spillover effects and competition effects among bank population and pay attention to the differential management of bank population for forming stable and concordant banking market structure.