基于马尔可夫过程的逆向物流特征预测与分析

Forecast and Analysis of Reverse Logistics Characters based on Markov Process Method

文章将逆向物流系统近似地看作为一个具有吸收态的马尔可夫过程,运用马尔可夫过程原理预测和分析了逆向物流系统中,系统从原始状态经过若干步转移后,回收物料到达各节点的概率;逆向供应链上某一节点处的回收物料进入吸收态的概率;回收物料从逆向供应链的某节点进入该系统,在各节点停留的平均时间和物料最终被系统吸收所需的平均时间。

The reverse logistics system is considered as a Markov process with absorbable status. The following characters have been forecasted and analyzed：the probability of returned materials reach certain node after several steps of transfer from the original status; the probability of materials in certain node to be absorbed by the system; the average time that materials stop at certain node and the time that materials are absorbed by the system.