煤化工基地产业链关联性分析——以YM集团为例

Analysis on industrial chain correlation within Coal-Chemical Industrial Base:the Case of Yima Mining Corporation

为实现煤化工基地化的规模化发展,产业链延伸战略是主要途径。因此研究其产业链发展的规律,对煤化工基地的建设与管理具有十分重要的作用。在时间序列协整理论的基础上,通过格兰杰因果关系检验的方法构建了产业链关联分析模型;以YM煤业集团作为案例,选取生产成本、销售成本、销售收入和销售利润等财务指标,运用EViews软件,对煤炭、建材、电力、化工和炼铝等产业从2000年到2005年的数据进行了单位根检验、协整检验、格兰杰因果关系检验,计算结果验证了模型的适用性。在此基础上,分析了YM煤业集团产业链之间的关联性以及匹配性,针对YM煤化工基地的产业和谐发展提出了建议。

The extension strategy of coal industrial chain is an important measure to realize large-scale development for coal- chemical industrial base. Researches on the above problem play an important role on the construction and management of the industrial base. On the basis of eointegration theory, we analyze the interdependencies among the industrial chains through the Granger causality test. Firstly, Yima Mining Corporation is introduced as a case. Secondly, EViews software is used to implement ADF Test, Cointegration Test and Granger Test on the time series of production costs, marketing costs, revenues and profits etc. indexes of the five industries, i.e. coal, construction materials, electric power, chemical and aluminum. Finally, some implications on the development of Yima Mining Corporation are given according to the cointegration analysis of the Yima industrial chains. The results display the applicability of the methodology.