商业地价形成机制、房地产泡沫及其治理

On the Formative Mechanism of Land Price and Real Estate Bubble

从2003年以来中国的房价一直处于快速上涨趋势中,而且根据房价一收入比等指标可以断定,部分地区的房价已经偏高,并且积聚了大量价格泡沫。推动地价、房价持续上升并最终形成房地产泡沫的内在动力是地方政府得自批租商业用地的财政利益。为增加其土地收益,地方政府不仅有激励在土地供给侧极力抬升地价,还有动力在房产需求侧积极推涨房价。结果,房地产泡沫就在这一利益的驱动下生长起来了。根据我们的分析,促使地方政府极力提高地价的深层原因在于现存的商业用地批租制度,它和土地出让的"招拍挂"机制一起构成了诱发价格泡沫的微观基础。因此,降低房价、治理房地产泡沫也应从改革这一制度安排入手,从源头上割断地方政府基于土地财政利益而推动地价、房价上涨的利益链条。

Since 2003 there has been a consistent and rapid rise in China＇s housing prices. Using indicators such as the housing priceper capita income ratio, it is clear that extensive housing price bubbles have arisen especially in some large cities. The factor behind the rapid and consistent rise in the housing prices and in eventually causing price bubbles is the fiscal income that local governments can obtain from leasing the public land to commercial uses. To increase such fiscal income, local governments not only have the incentives to raise land prices, but also have the motivation to push up housing prices. As a result, housing prices rise and bub- bles grow. According to the analysis, however, the most fundamental factor that has caused housing price bub- bles are the existing system governing the lease of public land, whereby local governments reaps all the revenue. This, together with the particular mechanisms through which land is leased, namely, public bidding, auction, and “guapai”（a combination of the former two）, provides a solid “micro - foundation” for the current escalating housing prices. Accordingly, any policy aimed to effectively resolve these issues has to begin with this micro - foundation, and has to focus on effectively breaking up the link between land prices and local governments＇ fiscal revenue.