中国海洋可持续发展的SD模型与动态模拟

The Dynamic Simulation of a SD Model on Ocean Sustainable Development of China

发展海洋经济,走海洋可持续发展之路,是振兴我国经济的一项举足轻重战略决策.从我国海洋的实际出发,运用系统动力学理论与方法建立了海洋可持续发展仿真模型.选择技术投资比例、单位海洋产业产值排污系数以及单位海洋产业产值资源消耗系数作为控制参量,分别取用不同的数值进行模拟.得到模拟结果表明,同时加大海洋经济中技术投资比,减少排污系数和资源消耗系数,海洋经将得到持续发展.并提出适合我国海洋可持续发展的政策建议.

It is an important Strategic decision to go on the Path of ocean sustainable development by developing marine economy. Focusing on the sea of China＇s actual conditions, this paper set up the simulation model of sustainable development in the ocean with the method of System Dynamics. By choosing the proportion of investment in technology, sewage coefficient of Unit output value in marine industries and resource consumption coefficient of unit marine industrial output value as control parameters, and different numerals to be simulated. This paper got meanirgful results which show that with the rapid develapment of China＇s marine economy, increasing the proportion of investment and decreanry the senage cafficient and resource consumption coefficient can keep sustainable development of marine economy. Meanwhiles, this paper proposed Policy recommendations that was suitable to ocean sustainable development of our country.