飞机退役时限及补充数量的预测研究

Study to Forecast Retire Time Limit and Supplement Quantity of Aircraft

飞机的退役是航空装备管理中的重要问题之一.为科学合理地确定飞机退役时限,针对部队飞机使用情况,以某型飞机为例,对飞机的剩余寿命进行详细分析,应用统计学方法,探讨了飞机退役时限和数量的变化规律,在此基础上建立了飞机补充数量预测模型.并结合空军装备发展的实际,对飞机使用过程中的更新换代问题进行了探讨.

The retired of aircraft is one of the importance question in aviation materiel management. In order to determine retire time limit of aircraft scientific and reasonable, aimed at aircraft use situation in the army, take a certain type aircraft as an example, aircraft residual life is analyzed detailed. The method of statistics is applied to inquire into the change regular of aircraft retire time limit and quantity. The models of aircraft supplement quantity forecast is built, Combine the practice of air force materiel development, the paper have a discuss on the renew and replacement during the aircraft use.