突发事件链的定量风险分析方法

Quantitative disaster chain risk analysis

根据突发事件链的特点,提出了针对突发事件链场景发生概率和后果的定量风险分析方法。首先确定事件链的初始事件,分析可能出现的次生事件,运用概率函数、层次分析和综合评判等方法确定事件间的触发概率;其次运用复合事件概率分析、事件后果评估模型等方法,分析和计算可能事件链场景的概率和后果;最后运用基于演化动力学的风险评估方法、基于指标体系风险评估等方法针对关注的事件链场景进行定量的风险评估。选择地震引发蒸气云爆炸和火灾的事件链进行计算分析。结果表明:该方法在突发事件链定量风险分析中具有可行性。

This paper presents a methodology for quantitative risk analyses of disaster chains. The methodology describes the probability, frequency, and consequences of disaster chains. The probability analysis first uses a hierarchy process to analyze the initial disaster and compute the probability of inducing other events. Then, a composite probability analysis is used to assess the conacquencea of subaequent events to evaluate the probability, frequency and consequences of disaster chain scenarios that may follow the initial event. Finally, the quantitative risk of the disaster chain scenario is assessed using evolutionary dynamics and methods based on an index system. The application of the methodology to an initial seismic event indicates that the method can predict the quantitative risks of disaster chains.