对当前国际金融危机的一种思考

A Way of Viewing the Current International Financial Crisis

发端于2007年8月的美国次贷危机以让人们始料未及的速度和深度、广度演化,成为现今波及全球的国际金融危机。无论在金融领域还是在实体经济领域,无论是主要工业国,还是经济增长一直都很强劲的新兴市场经济体,都无一例外地要承受危机带来的影响。本文将从危机发生的原因入手,以相当长一段时期以来存在的全球不平衡作为核心来展开。首先简单对国际收支不平衡及对其引发的有关危机的预期进行介绍;然后在第一部分分析此次金融危机的基本表现;第二部分论证此次危机与国际收支不平衡现象之间的关系;第三部分根据前几部分的分析做出政策上的建议,尤其是中国在当前危机下的政策选择,并进行全文总结。

The current international financial crisis which originated from the sub-prime debt crisis in the US is becoming more and more serious in width and depth. Not only in the financial area,but also in real economies,all the countries are experiencing the negative influences of the crisis,which include the industrialised countries as well as the newly emerging countries. This paper is to inquire into the reasons of the crisis,by focusing on the problem of 'Global Imbalance'. After a brief introduction to the Imbalance of Payments and the predicted crisis arising from it the first part of the article deals with the typical characteristics of this crisis. The second part is to show the relationship between the current crisis and the imbalance of BOP. The third part is to make some policy suggestions especially for China and to make a conclusion.