基于Lotka-Volterra模型的氢能市场系统演化分析

System evolutionary analysis on hydrogen market based on Lotka-Volterra model

作为良好替代性的清洁能源,氢能商业层面产业化进程相对缓慢.从氢能与非氢能的替代性入手,通过Lotka-Volterra系统模型建立氢能市场系统的演化模型分析以增加氢能供给为目的氢能市场演化性质.基于替代性和增加氢能供给量的原则,界定了一个相对的氢能市场和氢能市场结构的演化系统,在此基础上通过加入时间变量改进了基本的Lotka-Volterra模型,从而初步建立了氢能市场的系统演化分析模型.采用平均值法求解模型,分别从供给增加与非氢能消减的关系,以及氢能供给增长速度、非氢能消减及其涨落间的关系,两个层面上进行系统演化分析.在上述过程中,分别得出了在氢能供给的限度、独立性和增长率的四个关于氢能市场系统演化的推论.

As a clean substitute energy, the commercial development of hydrogen is slow. Aimed at this fact, this paper tries to deal with this problem from the substitution of hydrogen. Through Lotka-Voherra model, the market system evolutionary model of hydrogen is set. And with Lotka-Voherra model the character of evolutionary market which aim is to increase the hydrogen supply is analyzed. First, based on the rules of increasing the hydrogen supplement and the substitution, this paper asserts the evolutionary model of the hydrogen market and its market structure and improves the Lotka -Voherra with time variable. Based on above analysis this paper sets the analysis evolutionary model of the hydrogen market. Secondly, with the mean value method, analyzes two kinds of relationships about the evolutionary system. One is between the supply increase of hydrogen and the annealation of the non-hydrogen energy, the other is the relationship among the increment speed of the hydrogen supply, the annealation of non-hydrogen energy and it＇ s fluctuate. During the analysis, our reasoning comes down to four deductions about the limit of the hydrogen supply, the relative dependence and the growth in the hydrogen market. Lastly, combining of the above analysis, discusses the enlightenment of the four hydrogen energy market on the hydrogen industrial policy.