托宾Q理论、估值体系重构与并购行为新特征

Tobin Q Theory,Reconstruction of Valuation System and New Characters of Merger and Acquisition

根据托宾Q比率理论,计算出了全流通进程中的我国沪深A股市场托宾Q值。通过国际比较,分析了目前托宾Q值仍然较高的我国沪深A股市场,随着限售股的逐步解禁和全流通进程的加快,解禁限售股股东减持行为发生的必然性,并由此导致了市场定价权由金融资本转移到产业资本。全流通不但使我国A股市场迅速进入了估值体系重构的过程,而且使市场并购行为产生了与以往不同的新的特征。提出了诸如完善市场运行机制,降低交易成本,增强市场活跃度;鼓励上市公司之间交叉持股,已经交叉持股的鼓励不减持;严格限制以恶意"圈钱"为目的、严重影响市场稳定的再融资行为,控制新股发行(IPO)速度;鼓励大股东发行可交换债券,缓解减持压力;提高社保资金、企业年金等长线资金的入市比例等稳定市场的政策建议。

According to the Tobin Q ratio theory,the paper calculates the value of Tobin＇ s Q of China＇ s Shanghai and Shenzhen A-share market in the course of the full circulation. Through international comparison,it shows that it is inevitable that the shareholders of non-tradable shares will undersell lots of shares after the lift of the ban, because it is high for Tobin Q of China＇s A-share market. As a result,the pricing power of market has been shifted from financial capital to industrial capital. Hence,the valuation system of A stock market would have been fast reconstructed, because of full circulation. Meanwhile, the new behavior characteristic of M＆A would have come into being as the complete circulation. Finally, some policy recommendations are put forward for stabilization of the market, such as im- proving the market mechanism,reducing exchange costs and increasing market activity; encouraging cross-sharehold- ings among listed companies and making no reducing;limiting strictly the activities with malicious purpose of ＂swindling money＂ which affects seriously the stability of the market ; controlling the speed of initial public offerings （IPO） ; encouraging major shareholders to issue exchangeable bonds to ease the pressure of reduction;and raising the proportion of long - term fund such as social security funds and corporate pension funds into the market.