基于技术预见德尔菲调查的优先发展技术课题遴选方法研究

The Prior Topics Selection Methods Based on the Delphi Survey in Technology Foresight

技术预见强调相关利益者的参与,其德尔菲调查具有参与者广泛的特点。目前,国内外通过技术预见德尔菲调查遴选优先发展技术课题的案例很少。遴选优先发展技术课题必须要解决两个问题:一是优先发展技术课题的定义,二是遴选优先发展技术课题的方法。首先,在参考国内外对"关键技术"定义的基础上,提出了优先发展技术课题的定义。其次,在借助"中国未来20年技术预见研究"德尔菲调查结果的基础上,构建了优先发展技术课题评价指标体系。再次,在利用多种多属性决策方法计算技术课题发展优先度的基础上,提出了用组合决策方法确定技术课题发展优先度的方法。第四,以"中国未来20年技术预见研究"德尔菲调查中18项与氢能源相关的技术课题作为案例,采用组合决策方法分别计算了18项技术课题发展优先度。最后,总结归纳了全文研究得出的基本结论,并提出了相关建议。

Technology Foresight rose to the fore in the 1990s in the context of national technology foresight program. The technology exercises are largely a matter of research priorities and S＆T planning. The Delphi method is one of the most popular tools in the technology foresight. Generally speaking, the Delphi method evaluates the topics with several indicators, such as importance, feasibility, difficulties of realization, research level, and forecasted time and so on. However, it is very difficult to select out the topics with excellent in each indicator. Therefore, this paper raises a method of synthetic ranking for topics with multi-attribute decision method