基于模糊理论的航天发射场火箭煤油贮存泄漏风险研究

Study on the leaking risk of rocket kerosene stored on launching site based on fuzzy theory

分析了导致火箭煤油发生泄漏事故的危险因素,对各影响因素进行了分类,通过层次分析法确定各因素的权重,运用模糊综合评价法对泄漏事故风险进行评价。评价结果表明火箭煤油在贮存过程中出现泄漏事故的风险等级为第4等级,即风险处于"较大"级别。

The factors causing leaking of rocket kerosene stored on launching site were analyzed and sorted in the paper. All the fuzzy membership degree of the indexes had been weighed by the analytic hierarchy process （AHP）. Based on calculation, the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method had been established on the fuzzy mathematic theory so as to evaluate the leaking risk of the rocket kerosene storage. The evaluation results indicated that the leaking risk degree was the fourth degree, which is a relative high level.