经济周期波动与我国利率调整——基于凯恩斯利息理论视角

Economic Cycle Fluctuation and Our Country's Interest Rate Adjustment——In the View of Keynes Interest Theory

经济周期作为市场经济发展过程中的必然现象,在我国已是不争的事实,而利率作为"反经济周期"调控的重要手段,也正被我国央行频繁使用,但根据调控效果来看,利率的杠杆作用尚未完全发挥。为此,以凯恩斯利息理论为基础,通过分析经济周期波动与我国利率调整之间的相关问题,得出我国利率调整的决策机制应该从以下三方面来完善:第一,确保相关统计指标的真实性与可靠性;第二,保持中央银行在金融宏观调控方面的独立性;第三,灵活微调利率以适应经济的周期性波动。

Regarded as an inevitable phenomenon in the process of market economic development, the economic cycle already is an indisputable fact in our country; And interest rate is also being used as the important means of Anti - cycle control by our country＇ s Central Bank frequently, but according to the effect of regulation and control, the leverage of interest rate didn＇t play a role completely. Therefore, through analyzing the interrelated question about the economic cycle fluctuation and our country＇s interest rate adjustment on the basis of Keynes interest theory, we educe that the decision mechanism of our country＇s interest rate adjustment should be improved from the following three aspects： firstly, to make sure authenticity and reliability of the interrelated statistical indicators; secondly, to keep independence of the Central Bank in the financial regulation and control; thirdly, to fine-tune interest rate flexibly adapting to the economic periodic fluctuation.