我国资产价格变化与财政增收相互关系的实证分析

A Positive Analysis of Correlation between the Changes of Asset Price and the Fiscal Revenue Growth of China

随着经济体制改革深入推进,我国财政收入超经济增长现象愈加明显。为合理解释资产价格变化与财政收入增收之间的关系,本文构建了一个由财政收入增长率、货币市场利率、证券市场收益率和房地产市场收益率等4个变量组成的封闭系统,并从研究各变量间相互关系入手,分别建立各变量间的长期协整关系与短期关系模型,以期找出资产价格变化与财政收入增减变动间的内在关系。

With the deepening reform of economic system, the phenomenon becomes more evident that the fiscal revenue exceeds economy growth. This paper builds a closed system which contains four variables, that includes the growth rate of the fiscal revenue, the money market rate, the rate of returns from securities market and the rate of returns from real estate market. From the study of inter-relationships among those variables and by separately constructing models of the long-term covariant relationships and the short-term relationships model, this paper attempts to seek the reasonable relations between the changes of the asset price and the changes on movement of the fiscal revenue.