房地产市场泡沫测度：珠三角实证

Measurement of Real Estate Market Bubbles:An Empirical Study of Pearl River Delta

准确测度一国或地区的房地产市场泡沫水平和投机程度,是正确认识和有效解决房地产市场相关问题的基础。2008年,我国房地产市场价格在持续快速上涨后出现一定程度的回落,在市场的波动中如何准确测算其泡沫程度值得关注。目前对于房地产泡沫的测度方法不一,本文综合采用多种方法测算珠三角房地产市场泡沫,力求全面准确反映房地产市场真实的泡沫程度和房价合理度。结论显示:珠三角各地市房地产市场都存在不同程度的泡沫,当前的房价不尽合理,首付款和还贷压力均成为抑制市场需求的瓶颈。

How to have a correct understanding and to solve relative problems effectively on real estate market is based on the accurate measurement of a country or region＇s real estate market bubble level and speculative degree. In 2008, housing price experienced sustainable and rapid growth and then a rational cooling. The focus is then fallen on how to accurately measure the extent of bubble during the market fluctuation. At the present, there are a variety of methods used to measure the real estate bubble. This paper will introduce a comprehensive use of few methods to measure real estate market bubble in Pearl River delta in order to have an entire and truly reflection to the extent of the bubble and housing price rationality. A conclusion is drawn that different levels of the bubble appeared to exist in cities and regions in Pearl River delta, which results in irrational housing price. Down payment and loan pressure had become the bottleneck of inhibiting market needs.