多因素作用下的分年龄组婚姻挤压

On Marriage Squeeze of Different Age Categories Caused by Multiple Contributing Factors

构造了3个婚姻挤压的测度指标:理论男性富余比、未婚男性富余比和单身男性富余比,利用2000年"五普"资料中的婚姻状况数据,对3个指标进行了分年龄组对比,分析多个因素共同作用对不同年龄段男性婚姻挤压的影响。研究结果表明:不同年龄组的男性婚姻挤压程度与根据同年龄组性别比计算出的理论值有差异,有的年龄段男性婚姻挤压加重而有的则缓解。此外,人口年龄结构、夫妇年龄差等影响婚姻挤压的因素对各个年龄段男性婚姻挤压的影响是不同的。

By presenting three indicators to measure a marriage squeeze, namely, the ratio of excess males on the whole, of excess unmarried ones and of excess single ones, and using data for marital status from the 5th census in 2000, this paper compares the three ratios of different age categories, and analyzes how multiple factors contribute to the marriage squeeze of these male categories. The research result turns out that the actual male marriage squeeze is not the same as the one in the theory which is figured out by sex ratio of the same age groups. It is higher in some groups while lower in other groups. Besides, such factors as age structure, age difference between couples and so on have different effect on the squeezes.