基于EOF的降尺度法在福建雨季降水预测中的应用

APPLICATION ON PREDICTION TO RAINY SEASOON PRECIPITATION OF FUJIAN PROVINCE WITH A DOWNSCALING METHOD BASING ON EOF ANALYSIS

本文介绍了统计降尺度法（Downscaling）的基本原理并详细介绍了基于EOF（empirical orthogonal function）分析的降尺度方法，利用NCEP再分析资料的北半球雨季500hPa高度场和850hPa湿度场预报产品，采用基@EOF分析的降尺度方法对福建省的雨季降水进行预测，取得了较好的结果，表明用降尺度法预测福建的雨季降水是可行的，具有较高的技巧，在业务中有一定的应用价值。

In this paper, a statistical downscaling technique based on EOF analysis method was introduced.Experiments on prediction to rainy season precipitation of fujian province were carried out through the method using the NCEP reanalysis data of northern hemisphere 500 hPa geopotential height and 850 hPa humidity in rainy season. It had gained a relatively better result comparing with the reality,which showed a better skill and provided a feasible way on regional season prediction.