福建近百年热带气旋年频数突变分析与预测

Revulsion analysis of tropical cyclone yearly frequencies in Fujian during resent one century and predication

利用累积距平，滑动T-检查和Cramer等方法对福建近百年热带气旋年频数进行趋势分析和突变检测．发现福建热带气旋活动存在明显的气候振动．经历了四个少台期和三个多台期，并且在1971年前后发生气候突变。表现为七十年代前期以前。是近百年来最明显的一次多台活动期，随后福建TC年频数呈偏少趋势．最后。本文利用模糊均生函数正交化方法对福建未来10年热带气旋年频数进行了预测。

Trend analysis; and vevulsion detection are applied to centenary yearly frequencies of tropical cyclone in Fujian by way of cumulation anomaly, sliding motion T-detection, Cramer and so on. Then, the apparent climae vibration of tropical cyclone activity in Fujian is discovered that there are four less-tropical-cyclone periods and more -tropical-cyclone periods in recent century, and that the climate revulsion that there is a most apparent more-tropical-cyclone period before 1970 and a less-tropical-cyclone period after 1970 takes place in 1971. Finally, fhe ten-year yearly frequencies of the future in Fujian are predicated via the vagueness mean generating function orthogonalization method.