相似离度在福建雨季降水预测中的应用

Forecast of Rainy Season Precipitation in Fujian by Analogue Discrete Degree

本文简单介绍了相似离度的基本使用技术。从前期（1-3月）北半球500hPa各月月平均高度场中划分出与福建省雨季降水关系较密切的区域，使用该方法寻找若干个历史相似年份，进行迭加综合，做出雨季降水预测。通过对1998年-2007年的试报，效果较好，在业务中有一定的应用价值。

Analogue discrete degree and its application are introduced in this paper. Some dominant correlation regions were selected by the results of correlation analysis between rainy season precipitation of Fujian and previous （January to March） 500hPa monthly average height. The prediction of rainy season precipitation was developed based on analogue discrete degree with historical dominant correlation region and predictive year. The results in 1998-2007 indicate that this method is efficient.