“99．5”华南暴雨过程分析及降水数值模拟

A numerical simulation of heavy rainfall in the Southern of China in ＂99.5＂

本文采用高分辨率玎坐标模式，运用常规报文资料获得初始场，对1999年5月25日～26日的一次华南大暴雨降水过程进行了数值模拟，结果表明，高分辨率模式的降水场、形势场预报结果较好，TS评分较高，模式对暴雨的位置、强度、中心都有较好的预报；对物理量进行诊断分析，得出物理量分布的一些特征对暴雨发生有明显的指示作用。

In order to research the important influence of the heavy rainfall for Chinese weather,a numerical simulation has been on with the higher resolution η-coordinate model to the heavy rain case on May 25th - 26th,1995（called ＂99.5＂）,using the routine data to get initial field and model topography by envelope method. Compared to the results of observation,it is found that the precipitation and circulation pattern forecast of higher model has been improved greatly.To diagnostic analysis physical factor fields,the distribution of physical factor has an important indication for heavy rain forecast.