建阳暴雨客观预报技术的研制（1）——研究方法与预报模型

Development of Objective Forecast Techigue of Torrential Rain in JianYang City （1）-- Research Method and Forecast Model

文中介绍采用“滑动分区的车贝雪夫多项式展开技术模型”研制单站暴雨预报技术的过程与结果。根据暴雨客观预报模型，在2000-2003年5-6月的应用中，准确率平均比主观预报高出达50个百分点，且4年中无漏报一次暴雨的事实，指出“滑动分区的车贝雪夫多项式展开技术模型”对于提高单站暴雨的预报准确率和稳定性是有实效的。本篇介绍研究方法与预报模型。

In this text we introduce the manufacture of the process of rainfall forecast technique and result in single stand through the adoption of ＂the Chebyshev Polynomial deploy technique model＂ .According to the application of the objective forecast model of rainfall, from May to June in 2000-2003, the average objective accuracy of rainfall prediction is higher about 50% than that of the subjective, and with no failure to forecast one time in 4 years.This fact indicates that ＂the Chebyshev Polynomial deploy technique model＂ is more efficient in the improvement of rainfall prediction accuracy and stability in single stand.