理性预期、地产波动与宏观调控政策取向

Rational Expectation,the Fluctuation of the Real Estate and the Macro-Control Policy Implications

在信息不完全条件下,预期与房地产价格波动具有内在作用机制。通过对实施各种政策组合与预期因素变化的实证分析认为,为形成稳定的预期,应该从加大房地产产品市场供给力度;进行分类指导,区别调控市场参与对象;房地产开发过程透明化;完善住房保障体系建设,合理引导与有效稳定市场的心理预期等方面进行科学调控与管理,让房地产行业拉动内需,确保消费者利益,谋求社会整体福利的同时,防止利益团队人为左右房地产价格和市场,切实推进房地产市场健康发展。

Under the condition of information lacking or incompleteness, there exists internal interaction meehnism between expectation and the fluctution of real estate. An empirical analysis of the relation between a variety of policy portofolio and expectation factors indicates that, the following measures shall be taken in order to form stable expectation. These measures include increasing the amount of real estate supply, adopting different macrocontrol measures for diverse participants in the market, publicizing the process of real estate development, perfecting the eonsreetution of housing security system, leading the expectation of effective and stable market in a reasonbale way. The policy implications also include that the authority should put the social welfare to the upper hand, insure the living-apartmnet and living rights, avoid the man-handling the real estate price as well as the whole market. The above measures are the necessities for healthy development of the national economy and the houseing industry.