母线负荷预测中的自适应预测技术及其实现

Adaptive Forecasting Approach and Its Implementation in Bus Load Forecasting

负荷波动频繁、变化模式复杂是母线负荷的重要特点。如何自适应地进行预测模型的选择和模型参数的调整,从而获得更加准确的预测结果,始终是一个研究热点和难点。文章提出了一种基于虚拟预测思想的自适应母线负荷预测技术。通过分析自适应预测的基本问题,建立了母线负荷预测自适应技术的抽象统一框架,阐述了自适应预测技术的整体流程,并给出了自适应预测技术的详细数学描述与实现方法。算例分析表明,应用自适应预测技术,实际预测的效果得到显著提高。

Due to frequent fluctuation and complex variation patterns of bus load, up to now it is a research highlight home and abroad and is regarded as a hard task to adaptively select forecasting model of bul load and adjust model parameters to obtain more accurate forecasting results. In this paper, an adaptive bus load forecasting approach based on the thinking of virtual forecasting is proposed. By means of analyzing basic issues of adaptive forecasting, a unified abstractive frame of adaptive technique for bus load forecasting is built and the overall flowchart for adaptive forecasting of bus load is expounded, and detailed mathematical description and its implementation are given. A numerical example shows that by use of adaptive forecasting, the accuracy of prctical forecasting is evidently improved.